Thursday, February 11, 2010

Oil Demand Up; What About Supply? -- Seeking Alpha

Today the IEA reported that oil demand is increasing from 84.9 million barrels/day in 2009 to 86.3 million bbls/day in 2010. Most of this increased demand is coming from Aisa. The IEA further predicts that demand will increase by 1.2 MBBL/day over the next 5 yrs to 90.9 Mbbls/day in 2014.

Unfortunately, supply is not showing any signs of increasing.

My prediction - just read the comments at the end of the attached article -

Or, for the short version, any recovery in the US economy will trigger an instant spike in oil prices. As soon as prices near $150/bbl, you will see another economic collapse that will be at least as severe as 2008/2009. This will likely occur before 2012.

There is another possibility, and that is China's banking system will have a severe setback and this will drastically reduce their demand levels. This could give us another 3 yrs or so before the next major price spike.

Oil Demand Up; What About Supply? -- Seeking Alpha

No comments: